Livestock producers in one of Australia's most reliable agricultural zones in Victoria's Western District are budgeting on having to feed animals until at least September after a horror autumn.
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Veteran Western District stock agent Peter McConachy, Charles Stewart and Co, Colac, said it was the worst the region had looked in close to 50 years.
"I'd have to go back to 1966-7 for a season this bad," Mr McConachy said.
His assessment was backed up by Dreeite South, near Colac, grazier Mark Jacobs, who said he had farmed in the district for 72 years and that current conditions were the worst he had witnessed.
Mr Jacobs said feed bills to keep his herd going were significant.
"We're spending about $7000 a week in feed with the pellets and hay," Mr Jacobs, who runs an autumn-calving herd, said.
"That includes 20 rolls of hay three times a week, so 60 bales in total."
The property at Dreeite South features large amounts of volcanic rock and soil, and has barely a blade a tinge of green grass.
"It's as bad as any drought we've seen and we've been here on this property since 1971" Mr Jacobs said.
However, in spite of the heavy feed bill, Mr Jacobs was hopeful it would be worth holding on to stock, rather than selling.
In the 2015 drought, the Jacobs spent $172,000 in supplementary feed, which included pellets and hay.
"After that drought, the cattle prices boomed and we managed to be one of the top-selling vendors at Colac," Mr Jacobs said.
"It gave me back what I spent on the feed, so we are really hoping that will happen again next year."
Across the region Mr McConachy said light falls in recent weeks had improved coastal regions south of the Princes Highway, but otherwise paddocks often near waterlogged at this time of year were parched.
"We had a really dry spring, then there was a bit of a false dawn over summer with some good rain, but of course in our environment you don't maintain summer feed for long and it died and from then on it has been very dry."
"Now we are into winter and with the short days and lack of sunlight, in our part of the world we are not going to grow any meaningful feed until early September at the earliest."
"Even if it does rain, it won't rain feed and given our winters here the pastures will take until towards the end of winter or early spring to generate meaningful growth."
The stark rainfall deficit is borne out in data collected by Ombersley, north-west of Winchelsea, graziers and father and son duo David and Tom Kininmonth, "Eastside", who have three generations of rainfall results dating back to the 1940s.
Their records revealed it was one of the driest starts to winter on record in the last eight decades.
"Since 1944, there's only been three years where we haven't had a break by this time (of year), and looking even further than that, it's pretty much unprecedented until you go back to the 1880s," David said.
"What people are putting up with is pretty tough conditions."
Mr McConachy said the lack of rain meant people were making hard calls on stock numbers.
"It's a long time for farmers to have to feed and some are making the tough decision in terms of their stock program."
"Obviously the wethers were the first thing to go as farmers looked to ensure there was sufficient feed and fodder for the breeding stock, but we're also seeing people hone down their breeder numbers."
"With the good money on offer for old cows that has been one area farmers have seen an opportunity to destock, but we're also seeing old ewes being moved on and pretty ruthless culling programs getting rid of any dry ewes just to try and consolidate according to the conditions."
An agronomist in the Western District backed up Mr McConachy's calls that the dry conditions have hit livestock producers hard.
Craig Drum, Dagro, based at Tatyoon, said while grain crops could all use more moisture, mixed farmers' primary concerns surrounded livestock feed.
"There is just absolutely no feed about for the mixed farmers," Mr Drum said.
He confirmed farmers had been cutting their breeder numbers.
"It has got to the stage where some are actively destocking, and not just wethers being moved on a little early, I have had some clients who have made the decision to sell breeding stock," he said.
He was also pessimistic about the prospects of feed in paddocks until the end of winter.
"In this part of the world it is now quite cold and the days are short so we really can't expect too much feed until early September."
"Given the price of feed, some clients have done the sums and decided they are better off to move the livestock on rather than trying to feed them through the winter feed gap."
Mr McConachy said expense and availability of fodder were key concerns.
"The prices are really rocketing up for all types of hay, but not only that there are people wondering where they are going to get their next load from," he said.
"It has been dry for a long time now and there has been a lot of hay moving, so many of our normal suppliers are just about out and it sounds like a lot of the key hay producing regions are like this."
"In the meantime people may need to look further afield and that means higher freight bills but in general I think people are just happy if they can find some supplies."
