Lamb shortfall looming for Victoria, NSW as agents tip price rise is on the cards

RLA director James Tierney, Wagga Wagga, NSW, expects lamb volumes to tighten heading into winter in a sign he says is good news for producers hanging on for prices to improve.

"It should make lambs dearer, barring anything unforeseen," Mr Tierney said.

His family runs a prime lamb operation at Casterton in western Victoria and said conditions in the western half of the state were particularly dry after little to no autumn rainfall.

"If you talk to anyone down there, they say they wouldn't have too many lambs left and are a long way through their selling program," he said.

"Most of the lambs will have to be grain-fed moving forward to be any good, particularly the eastern Riverina, but the Riverina in general."

Sheep numbers at Wagga Wagga's market have fallen to 30,000-40,000 lambs in the last two weeks, down from 45,000-50,000 lambs in the first quarter in 2024.

Mr Tierney said another factor which could cause long-term price rises was the high turnoff of mutton since mid-2023.

"There's been a pretty big kill generally with mutton and lamb, but there has been a huge sell off of mutton across the whole of Australia since last winter when the Bureau of Meteorology scarred everyone to sell off," he said.

"That was a result of the El Nino predictions, and since then, the sell-off has continued.

"That would indicate to me that lamb supply won't be as plentiful next year as it has been in recent years, suggesting they most likely will make more money."

The National Trade Lamb Indicator sits at 648c/kg, down from 768c/kg in the first week of January but up from its lowest point of 585c/kg in March this year.

In the western district, Nutrien Savin Livestock Marketing director Sam Savin said Hamilton's weekly lamb and sheep market was yarding between 25,000-30,000 head a week.

"It's quite incredible for May because usually it would be only half of what we're selling at the moment," he said.

"I think there will be a shortfall going into June and July, but there are still a lot around at the moment hence why prices are sitting 650-700 cents a kilogram."

Mr Savin said most producers were supplementary feeding lambs in western Victoria as a result of the dry conditions.

"We're pretty tough at the moment, and if you're not feeding your lambs, you're not getting them to trade and heavy weights," he said.

"In the last couple of years there hasn't been a margin in feeding lambs, so a lot of them were killed early from Christmas onwards.

"That's what will drive the tight supply because a lot of the lambs that would normally come onto the market now, were processed when they were much lighter."