Live cattle numbers to Asia to grow in 2023 but longer-term story is even better

While a substantial uptick in volumes of live Australian cattle exported has been touted for 2023 as more supply comes on line, it is the longer-term strength in Asian markets that is underpinning producer faith in the trade.

Australian cattle exports hit a 10-year low in 2022, decreasing to just over 600,000 head as the numbers available for export tightened dramatically and pushed prices for live feeders to new heights.

However, Meat & Livestock Australia analysts say consultation with exporters and other industry stakeholders indicates an uplift in volume shipped of around 12 per cent is on the cards this year.

"Last year was a tough year for live-ex that can't be ignored," MLA senior market information analyst Ripley Atkinson said.

"Clearly the discovery of two exotic diseases in Indonesia did affect the trade.

"On top of that there was the attraction of lucrative markets in the south for traditional live-ex suppliers, capitalising on record cattle prices."

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Consecutive wet seasons that didn't stack up also affected numbers, he said.

Towards the end of last year, a shift in the dial did, however, seem to be emerging.

October live cattle volumes exported were the highest since August 2021 and December business out of Darwin was also strong.

"That indicates there are still cattle available and there is definitely the demand from South East Asia," Mr Atkinson said.

"Industry consultation suggests up to 660,000 could be sent this year; our modelling says around 619,000 and in 2024 that will increase to 680,000, then 750,000 the year after."

Fundamentally, Australia's Asian markets present solid long-term growth opportunities for exports due to the rising demand for high quality protein as household incomes grow, MLA's latest cattle market projections say.

This demand will be underpinned by a continued preference for freshly-slaughtered beef.

Of course, the growing potential will be accompanied by increased competition, mostly in the form of Indian buffalo meat and cheaper proteins.

Other live exporters may also come on the scene, however MLA analysis indicates there are plenty of barriers.

Brazil, which alongside Australia is a major exporter of cattle, previously focused shipments within South America but its attention has shifted further afield in recent times and changing foot and mouth disease dynamics could play a role in its ability to target Asia.

According to MLA's latest Global Beef and Trade Report, Brazil's FMD status is a barrier for exporting cattle to Indonesia but FMD is already an endemic disease in Vietnam - Australia's second largest market - and the two countries signed an agreement in 2021 allowing live export from Brazilian producers, with the first shipment having already arrived.

Although cheaper than Australian cattle, the distance from Brazil to Vietnam makes the route relatively uneconomic in usual circumstances, MLA reported.

"This shipment occurred in the context of supply chain difficulties for Vietnamese importers and very high cattle prices in Australia, meaning that this route is unlikely to be sustainable in the long term," its report said.

Mexico has also traditionally exported over one million cattle a year but the synergies and sea-freight infrastructure are not in place to ship large quantities to South-East Asia, the report said.