Keep FMD outbreak in perspective, says leading agricultural market analyst

TEM analyst Andrew Whitelaw said he understood why some producers were concerned about the incursion of FMD but it was a low probability.

"Keep calm and carry on," Mr Whitelaw said.

"It is high severity if something does happen, that's clear, so you have this balancing act."

He said he was frustrated at calls to cancel the Royal Melbourne Show or not letting farmers go to the zoo.

"This is all nonsense," he said.

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Mr Whitelaw said the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture maintained a good dataset on the outbreak.

"The peak day for new FMD cases in Indonesia was on Jun 26, with 13,400 cases," he said.

"Since then the number of cases has been trending down, with the ten-day average at 2.700."

The FMD outbreak is not spread equally around Indonesia, with the most concerning region being East Java, with 93 per cent of all cases.

"The outbreak which has caused the most trepidation has been Bali; Bali has had 554 cases or 0.13pc of all cases," Mr Whitelaw said.

'We just have to calm down, it's a risk, but we have to be measured in our approach to it."

Compared with the rest of the world, Australia had strong biosecurity protocols, and didn't have the same diseases which plagued overseas countries, he said.

"The fact we don't have them is because our biosecurity protocols are pretty strong," Mr Whitelaw said.

It was unlikely tourists returning from Indonesia would be visiting a farm, he said.

"It's six degrees in Melbourne, so they are not going to be wearing thongs anyway," he said.

"All those clothes they wore in Bali are going to go in the bottom drawer, because it's the middle of winter.

"The virus still has to get from an infected animal in Indonesia to a susceptible animal in Australia."

He said to get an outbreak, a number of errors would need to to occur - "it's not impossible, but it is still low risk."

The analysis comes as store cattle numbers drop sharply, resulting in one regular Victorian sale being cancelled and another postponed.

The number of cattle being presented at store sales is down compared with agent's advertised figures, while next month's Euroa and Colac markets will not go ahead.

But agents say that's due to a lack of numbers being brought forward, due to a particularly harsh winter.

Pakenham drew 1100 head of steers and heifers, which was lower than expected.

But Delaney Livestock and Property auctioneer Anthony Delaney said he didn't expect the smaller numbers to continue for too long.

"It's something else now, it's wet, muddy and cold," Mr Delaney said.

"We will go through a lull, for a month, then it will be back on again."

At Kyneton, agents also said poor weather had resulted in only 260 head of cattle being yarded.

Warrnambool store cattle sale saw 550 head, revised downwards from 800.

Euroa has postponed its August sale until next month.

Elders Euroa livestock manager Joe Allen said the three agents managed to muster only 200 cattle between them.

"We generally get moderate numbers, this time of year," Mr Allen said.

"In July we had some carryover from our June sale, but prior to the FMD the price correction had steadied the ship and people have been hanging onto cattle and get a bit of sunlight onto their cattle," Mr Allen said.

"I don't think anything is going to change, number-wise, until we see a bit of growth."

He said agents decided to postpone the sale before viral FMD fragments were found in wastewater.

"In the prime and sheep markets we are seeing a tip-out of stock - we are not seeing it in the store market," he said.

"It's not related to the FMD scare - it's a seasonal thing."

Charles Stewart Colac livestock consultant Shelby Howard said this month's store sale had also been cancelled, largely due to the weather.

"It's been a bit wet and cold and we are a month away from a bit of sunshine, so we thought it was the right thing to do," Mr Howard said.

He said there was some uncertainty, due to FMD, but it was not the main factor.

"But to do the right thing by our clients, we have advised them to hang onto their cattle," he said.

"It's purely just been too wet and cold to do anything - we are only months away from the real good feature lines coming through.

"At the moment we are getting what you would call clean-up lots."