Victoria's COVID vaccine mandate has triggered a bidding war in the shearing industry, as NSW contractors call for the state's unvaccinated workers to move north.
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In Victoria, shearers need to have at least one dose to stay on the job and be double-dosed by November 26, while in NSW, shearers don't have to be vaccinated to work.
Several contractors have reported losing staff who were refusing to get vaccinated and being barred from entering shearing sheds in Victoria.
The shearer void is expected to trigger a bidding war for workers with prices to hit $7 a sheep, more than double the current $3.31 award.
"There are NSW shearing contractors advertising that they will take unvaccinated workers because it will be the only state those people can work," Shearers Contractors' Association of Australia secretary Jason Letchford said.
"Our message to shearing contractors is, if they think the Victorian government will take pity and yield to their demands (to work unvaccinated), they have slim chances."
The vaccine mandate coincides with the re-opening of the trans-Tasman travel bubble, allowing shearers from the South Island of New Zealand to arrive in Australia without spending two weeks in quarantine from Wednesday.
Mr Letchford estimated about 10 per cent of Australian shearers were opposed to the COVID vaccine, or unable to for health reasons, which he said reflected the state vaccination rate.
This week, more than 70pc of eligible Victorians had received both their vaccine doses, while 90pc had received their first dose.
He said the "unintended consequence" of the government mandate would be a pricing battle to secure shearers.
"There will be a pricing breakout in Victoria this season with the shortage of shearers," he said.
"I wouldn't be surprised if it got to more than $6 a sheep to shear fat lambs.
"That would be temporary but producers will need to do something extraordinary to get workers.
"Growers will be able to afford to cut into profits and pay more to attract vaccinated shearers in Victoria - that is a logical way producers can solve their immediate problem.
However, employing unvaccinated teams came with a health warning, Mr Letchford said, after one shearing team was locked down for two weeks near Wilcannia, NSW, after a shearer tested positive for COVID.
"The shearers in Wilcannia lost 10 days of work - health and safety always gazumps your right to work," he said.
"It is 100pc likely everyone in Australia will get COVID in the near future, and we are aware that a few people still get sick when vaccinated.
"This doesn't create an argument to not be vaccinated, it is the only solution for shearing teams to keep working."
Farm businesses that fail to comply with the public health order risk fines of up to $10,904, or up to $109,044 for the most serious breaches.
"For a normal person it is not worth shearing one sheep using an unvaccinated worker," Mr Letchford said.
"Every week when we pay our workers, that information goes straight to the Australian Taxation Office, managed by the federal government, who also controls Medicare, and people's vaccination status - it wouldn't take much to be audited."
Meanwhile, several Victorian-based shearers believe animal welfare will be a casualty in the fight against the COVID-19 vaccine mandate.
Benalla shearing contractors Nick and Karen Van Elk said one-quarter of their 40-strong shearing and shed staff team were objecting to the mandated vaccinations.
The Van Elks are booked to shear 75,000 sheep in Victoria in the next three months.
Mrs Van Elk said the state was already in the midst of a shearer shortage, which was reaching crisis point, ahead of one of the worst flystrike seasons in recent years.
"It's not our position to tell our shearers they must get the needle, at the same time if they don't we can't let them work," she said.
"The way the flies are already attacking the sheep, we will end up having an animal health disaster with sheep dead in paddocks."