The latest rainfall outlooks show the far east of Victoria is likely to be wetter than average in January, and there are slightly increased chances of wetter weather for parts of the west too.
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For the January to March period, there are slightly increased chances of above average rainfall across northern Victoria and parts of the south west - and higher chances in East Gippsland.
The strongest chances for above average rainfall in January, and from January to March, are north of the border in eastern New South Wales, and in eastern and northern Queensland.
The wet outlook for much of eastern Australia is the result of the interactions between several key climate drivers.
The current La Nina will likely peak around December or January and persist until at least the end of January 2021.
La Nina and a strong polar vortex favour a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM), with generally positive SAM values expected during the 2020-21 summer.
This typically enhances the wet signal of La Nina in parts of eastern Australia, although western Tasmania is typically drier than average.
Days and nights are likely to be warmer than average in the new year for Victoria.
Most of the country shares high chances - of greater than 80 per cent - of warmer than average minimum temperatures from January to March.
The stream flow forecast for summer - in the months of December to February - shows low and near median flows are likely at most sites in Victoria, following a drier than average November for most parts.
Root zone soil moisture is above average in Victoria's south west, below average in the north west and mostly average - with pockets of below average - across the east.
This year has been milder than 2019 and was Victoria's fifth warmest year on record. It was also Australia's hottest and driest year on record.
But for Victoria, days have - on average - been warmer than usual in the east and parts of the north.
Nights are tracking warmer than usual in the south west and centre, and have been in the warmest 10 per cent of records for parts of the east.
We are not alone, as 2020 is likely to be one of Australia's five warmest years on record.
The World Meteorological Organisation reported last week that, globally, 2020 is likely to rank as one of the three warmest years on record - despite the presence of La Nina, which typically lowers annual temperature.